taobanker@taobanker

$ngs hearing from my energy guy multiple anecdotes / confirmations of long lead times ... this means it's time to start valuing on 2027 numbers imo...basically an upgrade all around

taobanker@taobanker

Just read $NGS conference call. Mostly good news: - Favorable refinancing of bank facility at lower rate even while high yield bond market was blowing up - Closing on income tax receivable + making progress in selling real estate - Ramping up internal discussions on return of capital strategy - Claims to be not impacted by Oxy drilling slowdown From my perspective, a dividend or buyback initiation could be a good catalyst to sell depending on how the market reacts. Here are my numbers for 2027Q1: - $314mm market cap - $80mm current run-rate ebitda + $150mm growth capex @ 18%-20% ROIC --> $105-$110mm - Net debt: ~$155mm minus $25mm lump sum for income tax receivable/real estate + $150mm capex - $50mm debt paydown--> $230mm @ 6x: $400mm+ @ 7x: $505mm+ @ 8x: $650mm+ Risks: - Larger refi facility is a double-edged sword, could enable poor acquisition Cliffnotes: - There's room for a double from here with good execution and a timely multiple ($KGS currently trading at 8.2x 2025 ebitda). - Interesting situation where contracts are structured such that they have been relatively immune to short term oil price volatility

taobanker@taobanker

Recent weakness in compression stocks is likely to just be more collateral damage from $OIH imo. I have a bunch of covered calls on $NGS expiring next Friday so I'm hoping the stock stalls out at $24.99 lol.

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