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just a lil $PWIG in a big muddy field
$PGY $PGYWW: Street upgrades continue to pour in and we still have the Q2 results coming in 8/7 @ 8:30AM ET where I believe mgmt will raise Q3 guidance AND announce a highly accretive balance sheet optimization transaction. Pagaya is a much better business model than $UPST and deserves to trade at similar valuation multiples which would get you to $110-$115 stock price. The key to rerating higher and closing that gap is execution which the market is starting to reflect. Implied volatility for Pagaya seems low at 75% given the likely rerate ahead. I've been accumulating the public warrants $PGYWW and now hold 25% of the outstanding. Recall the company did a 12:1 RS, so these warrants have a strike of $138 and cap at $218. You have a decent amount of time left as they expire in 5/31/2027. These warrants will do well if the stock price ramps into $100s on continued execution, implied volatility expands (10% increase = +30% bump in price) and/or if Pagaya gets acquired for cash and you end up getting Black Scholes Value (See $SATX $STXYF). As I've posted previously, the huge valuation disconnect with $UPST makes Pagaya an interesting takeover target for Private Equity or a strategic that is looking to enter the business. If you're bullish on Pagaya, stock is the most straight forward way to play the name. However, warrants present an interesting way to play upside with optionality on stock price appreciation, volatility expansion and/or cash buyout w/ the risk of course that they expire worthless in 2 years.
⚡️ 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴! 🔥 Entered Trending | @itsapwig PWIG | #PWIG 📊 LIQ: $8.59K | MC: $27.29K #SOL #Crypto #Bitcoin
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